The Colorado Rapids are back in the playoffs, and we have an entire international break to collect ourselves - and exhaust ourselves with hype and anticipation - before the Round One matchup against familiar foe Minnesota United FC. We’ll get to previewing that match in-depth later this week but, first, wanted to zoom out and take a bird’s eye view of the rest of the Western Conference.
There are scintillating storylines and intrigue in every game. Worst-to-first Sporting KC are up against 2020’s mayhem club, the San Jose Earthquakes; the MLS is Back Tournament winners Portland Timbers are looking for their second tournament victory of 2020, hosting a stingy FC Dallas side; defending MLS Cup champs Seattle begin their title defense, welcoming an LAFC side that scored more goals than anybody else and just got back Carlos Vela. I cannot wait.
We’ll go through these matches chronologically, and I’ll offer up my predictions for the whole world to see and remind me of should any of them be incorrect. Important reminder: some teams will be without key players who will be quarantining after international duty.
Sporting Kansas City vs San Jose Earthquakes
A month ago, the MLS world was torn between Seattle and Portland in prognosticating who would take the top seed into the playoffs. Then the Cascadia squads faltered, and SKC won six of their final eight to claim the West. The furious finish to the regular season marked the single greatest year-to-year improvement in MLS after SKC finished 2019 in 11th in the West. They have three consecutive clean sheets, having not conceded a goal since Oct. 17 in Chicago. Their +13 goal differential is second-best in the West, and they appear to have worked out some of their midseason defensive kinks.
They’ve proven in 2020 they can win without star forward Alan Pulido, and they might be forced to do it again at least once more. The Mexican striker missed Decision Day after not being medically cleared with a knee injury, and, as of now, no update has been provided. Pulido has the second-best G+A/90 in MLS at 1.03 in 962 minutes of action (Albert Elis has 1.67 G+A/90). Losing your DP striker right before a playoff run is never ideal, but SKC may be best equipped team to deal with such a loss. Fellow forwards Johnny Russell (6), Khiry Shelton (5), Erik Hurtado (5) and Gerso Fernandes (3) have combined for 19 goals.
Conventional wisdom says the top seed hosting the lowest seed in the first round is an advantage to the team at the top, but, with the recent form this San Jose side is showing, that sort of logic can be thrown out. In their last 10 matches, the Quakes have conceded 13 goals. Not bad. In the 10 matches prior to that, they conceded 31. Very bad. They’re 6-3-1 since their decimation at DICK’s Sporting Goods Park on Sept. 23. It was after that 5-0 loss to the Rapids, when the Quakes hit rock bottom, that they made a switch at goalkeeper and, instead of giving up on 2020, doubled down on their efforts. The final playoff spot was the reward for their determination and never-say-die attitude.
When I look at this match-up, I see an Earthquakes side good enough to beat anybody. They possess that je ne sais quois belief in themselves and each other that can’t be quantified with stats and can’t be identified on tape in the film room. It’s a heartbeat that doesn’t show up on the heartrate monitor.
Unfortunately for the Quakes, I think they flatline at Children’s Mercy Park. Despite the defensive turnaround in recent weeks, Decision Day – which delivered San Jose a 4-1 loss to Seattle – demonstrated elite attacking talent can still separate their belief in themselves from their performance on the pitch. But despite that, MLS legend Chris Wondolowski snags one late in what hopefully isn’t his final match.
Prediction: 3-1 Sporting KC
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
This might be the most overlooked matchup of the first round, but it has the one thing every sports fan wants when deciding what to watch: an immovable object against an unstoppable force. The Timbers bagged 46 goals in 23 matches in 2020 - one fewer goal than LAFC for most in MLS. FC Dallas allowed only 24 goals - one more than Seattle for fewest in the West.
Remember, this is win and advance. These guys have been preparing for this match, these 90 minutes, since January. There’s been a global pandemic, a bubble in Orlando and a condensed season that these sides have had to endure and work through to make it here. Everything Portland and Dallas have been preparing for 11 months comes down to who can be better when playing at their best over 90 minutes at Providence Park.
It’ll be former MLS MVP Diego Valeri crashing like a wave over rocks again and again against one MLS’ best and most underrated defenders, Matt Hedges. This entire match comes down to who can execute their strengths and impose their will. One of these times, somewhere in this match, someone will slip. Maybe it’s a perfect delivery from Valeri knocked into the net by Jeremy Ebobisse, or maybe it’s Andres Ricaurte connecting with Franco Jara on a perfect counterattack to expose Portland’s defense.
This is the kind of match where the teams are in a dogfight and the only way out is to land a haymaker. The added sense of urgency and desperation that comes from a single elimination playoff game adds the sort of flavor and spice you just don’t get outside of a tournament.
I do think the Timbers will be able to score one, but I also believe this FC Dallas team is too cunning and intelligent to not steal a goal back of their own. It may come against the run of play, but a goal is a goal, and they’re all worth one.
Prediction: 1-1 - Portland advance on penalties
Seattle Sounders FC vs Los Angeles Football Club
Seattle fans are looking at the MLS standings, contorting their faces and saying, “What gives?” The Rave Green did everything they were supposed to and earned the second seed. Their prize is a date with the 2019 MLS MVP and the best attack in MLS.
Seattle might have the roster with the most overall talent in the league. Their depth goes beyond Jordan Morris, Raul Ruidiaz and Nicolas Lodeiro. They don’t have the best goal differential in the West by accident. They’ve been here before and know better than anybody what it takes to win in the postseason.
As fate would have it, this is a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final, when Seattle trekked down to Banc of California Stadium and won 3-1 to host MLS Cup. I remember it being one of the best matches of 2020 as it broke the narrative of LAFC possibly having the best single campaign in MLS history. I’ll go out on a limb and wager LAFC remember it as well. But there’s more to this match than just a good old-fashioned revenge storyline.
The new narrative is the return of 2019 MLS MVP, Carlos Vela. He’s missed the majority of this year after skipping Orlando to be with his wife through the end of her pregnancy and birth of his child, and then further being sidelined with a knee injury. But he’s managed to come back at just the right time. His two goals and one assist in his 187 minutes since his return means he’s involved in a goal nearly every hour.
And while he’s been gone, it’s been the young Uruguayan, Diego Rossi, who picked up the slack and also picked up the 2020 Golden Boot. No big deal, just the first time two teammates have won the Golden Boot in consecutive seasons. If Rossi should be sidelined from the match after returning from international duty, it would shock nobody if Vela picked up the slack and carried LAFC.
On paper, this is maybe the most exciting match in Round One. LAFC’s last win against a playoff team came Oct. 11 against… Seattle. But this is when Seattle is infamous for finding that extra gear and elevating to a level teams simply cannot match.
Prediction: 4-2 Seattle
Every match has something for the casual observer, and every match has potential to go sideways fast. Maybe San Jose’s defense reverts to midseason form, and SKC find five or more goals; maybe Dallas get out ahead early in Portland, and the Timbers are frantically chasing the game opening it up end-to-end; and maybe Seattle and LAFC toss in goals like tourists tossing pennies into fountains, wishing for each to be the winner until the final penny splashes home.
